Understanding Takes Time

To our readers,

Information travels at the speed of light. Understanding does not.

This is the opportunity in front of us. In the digital age, anyone can access the tools to understand Bitcoin, but to truly understand its significance takes time. It requires a deliberate effort to unlearn what we have been taught about money and to see the world through a new lens.

This gap between the availability of information and the pace of human understanding is where the asymmetry lies.

The Monetization Timeline

Gold took millennia to monetize. From its first use as a collectible to its eventual status as a global store of value, the process was slow, spanning likely tens of thousands of years. People adopted it because it worked. Its network effect grew generation by generation, culture by culture, until it became the global standard for storing value.

Bitcoin is monetizing in a hyperconnected world, but the process is still measured in decades. We are roughly 15 years into a 30 or 40 year journey. The store of value phase, which is the longest and most arduous part of monetization, is still in its early stages.

Global adoption, in any meaningful sense, remains in the single digit percentages. Most people who own Bitcoin hold a trivial amount. The number of people who have a significant portion of their savings in Bitcoin is perhaps 1 or 2% of the global population. We are early.

The process cannot be rushed. Understanding why Bitcoin is superior money requires time to study, time to question, and time to internalize. Gold had thousands of years for this understanding to spread. Bitcoin will have decades. We are positioned at the beginning of this process.

The Moat of Network Effects

Incumbents are protected by powerful network effects. Gold has a brand built over 5,000 years of recorded history. The US dollar is the default for global trade, embedded in contracts, central bank reserves, and the psychology of billions of people. These do not disappear overnight, even in the face of a superior money.

To unseat a strong network effect, you do not need a marginal improvement. You need a massive, order of magnitude advantage. A 10% better product will not overcome the inertia of an established network. You need something so superior that the friction of switching becomes worth it.

Bitcoin has that advantage. Its absolute scarcity cannot be replicated by gold or any fiat currency. Its portability makes gold look primitive. Its verifiability makes trust unnecessary. Its neutrality makes it immune to political manipulation. These are not small improvements. Bitcoin is in a field of its own.

But the world will take time to recognize this. The network effect of the old system creates a protective moat. People continue to buy gold because everyone else buys gold. Central banks hold gold because other central banks hold gold. The dollar remains dominant because it has always been dominant. This inertia is real, and it is powerful.

Yet Bitcoin is inevitably crossing this moat. Every person who comes to understand its superiority weakens the old network and strengthens the new one. This is a slow process, but it is a one way process. Once someone truly understands what Bitcoin is, they do not go back.

The Psychology of Path Dependence

Human psychology works against understanding. People anchor to past prices and past narratives. "I cannot buy at $100,000 because my friend bought at $100" is a flawed line of reasoning. This is path dependence. It is the fallacy of judging an asset's future potential by the path it has already taken, rather than by its fundamental properties.

Bitcoin has no obligation to follow anyone's model or timeline. Volatility is inevitable in the monetization of a new asset with no cash flows (a common value assesment framework) and no central authority to stabilize its price.

Path dependence creates noise. It causes people to sell at the wrong time, buy at the wrong time, and lose conviction when the price does not behave as expected. We leverage this emotional disconnect, but the fundamentals do not change. Bitcoin is still absolutely scarce. It is still the best technology for storing and transferring value. It is still being adopted, slowly but surely, by more people every year.

Our goal is to primarily focus on the destination. The price of Bitcoin is a function of its understanding. As more people come to understand its superiority, the price will reflect that growing demand against a perfectly inelastic supply. The timeline is uncertain, but the direction is not.

Our conviction is high because we are not betting on a price cycle. We are investing in a multi decade monetization event, driven by the slow, inevitable process of human understanding.

Time is on our side.