Turchin’s Crowded Top
Why Peter Turchin's model of societal breakdown is right about the symptoms, wrong about the engine, and how the Bitcoin Lens fills in the missing piece.
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The Lens
Long-form analysis on Bitcoin, monetary history, and the case for sound money. Written by Nate Slemp.
AI Is Misunderstood
I do not think that the market understands what kind of story it is pricing as it relates to AI. When most people think AI, they see software. That is not where my mind goes first.
COLDCARD
Today is a sad day in the space. I take no pleasure in writing about this. A serious exploit has been discovered in Coinkite’s COLDCARD firmware.
BIP 110
A new ideological war has been unfolding in Bitcoin, and the problem is that both sides are right. The controversy centers on BIP 110. Having listened to both camps for the better part of a year, I believe this battle of ideals is much closer than people realize.
Strategy and Misalignment
Strategy is not dead, and Saylor has not become an idiot overnight. In fact, if you ran the simulation a hundred times, I think Strategy probably walks out alive in most of them. Maybe 95 out of 100. Focusing on odds of survival though kind of misses the point.
Bitcoin is the Second Amendment of Money
Bitcoin gives the individual a form of monetary self defense. It gives people a way to hold value in an asset that is far harder to dilute, seize, censor, or politically manipulate than the alternatives most people rely on.
Bitcoin is on a Need to Know Basis
Most people do not think seriously about money until money becomes a problem. Bitcoin enters the picture differently — and that is one of its quieter poetic qualities.
Adam Back Isn't Satoshi
Every few years, the hunt for Satoshi Nakamoto comes back into fashion. The latest version arrived through The New York Times. Adam Back belongs on any serious list of people who mattered to Bitcoin's intellectual ancestry. The article gets the atmosphere right. It gets the evidentiary standard wrong.
Analyzing Quantum
The conversation around quantum computing and Bitcoin has become louder in recent months. Quantum risk is real as a category. The claim that Bitcoin is facing an imminent quantum emergency is something else entirely. Those are very different judgments, and the evidence for the second one remains weak.
February Starts Spooked
Bitcoin and the broader markets have had a rough start to February. The announcement of Kevin Warsh as President Trump's nominee for Federal Reserve Chair sent a wave of uncertainty through the system. The signal is the math. The Fed must print. The dollar will be debased.
Understanding Takes Time
Information travels at the speed of light. Understanding does not. This is the opportunity in front of us. The gap between the availability of information and the pace of human understanding is where the asymmetry lies.
2025: Reflecting Back to Look Forward
As we begin 2026, it is worth reflecting on the year that has just passed. The euphoric predictions of a "super cycle" failed to materialize. We will not sugarcoat this reality. The price action was underwhelming. However, this environment is not a setback. It is a dream opportunity.
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